Paraná has, at this moment, a new growth in the number of coronavirus cases. On Tuesday (24), 1,911 new cases of infected people were registered. Larger than at the beginning of August, with 481 confirmed cases. Already the moving average of deaths is at 72 per day. To make matters worse, Paraná has been for more than a week as the state with the highest rate of transmission of the virus, with a RT of 1.11, every 100 people transmitting it to another 111.
These are worrying numbers, since the expectation was that with the advance of vaccination there would be a drop. Brasil de Fato Paraná spoke with specialists to understand the causes of this situation. One of them is that, with the advance of vaccination, even slowly, a “sense of normality” began to be generated in the population by the governments themselves.
For Professor Emanuel Maltempi, president of the Commission to Combat Coronavirus, at the Federal University of Paraná, “The fault is also of the governments that began to pass on to the population a very false sense of normality because of some data that came after vaccination . But with 25 to 70 deaths a day and cases rising, it’s still pandemic at its peak. This is not a normal situation”, he explains.
The other cause pointed out by Maltempi is the higher level of transmissibility of the new variant, Delta, which had its community transmission confirmed in Paraná at the end of July. The State Department of Health (Sesa) confirmed on Monday (23) two more cases and one death of this variant in Paraná. Now, the state has 58 cases and 19 deaths of the strain.
“It is necessary to look at countries that have had Delta’s advance very quickly, precisely because they have made their prevention protocols more flexible because of vaccination. Including discarding the use of a mask. The result was an explosion of cases in the United Kingdom and the United States, for example”, says Maltempi. The professor also highlights that in these countries vaccination is more advanced than in Brazil, and even so there was an increase in cases. “The faster vaccination takes place, the more it will protect the population from this new strain. But, it alone is not enough. Governments need to warn about this: you, vaccinated, take Covid 19 and transmit it, for example, to people who have not yet completed their vaccination cycle”, he says.
England’s public health agency released a survey on immunizations and their effectiveness against Delta. On average, the effectiveness was 35% for symptomatic cases of the disease with one dose, and 79% with two.
For medical epidemiologist Denise Garrett, the trend is that the wave caused by Delta is short, but alert to the delay in vaccination. “The big problem is that in Brazil the vast majority of people have not completed the vaccination cycle, which would guarantee greater protection – among those vaccinated (two doses or a single dose), the risk of infection is three times lower and that of death, at least ten times smaller”, he explains. Paraná reached 66.67% (6,963,580) of those vaccinated with the first dose and 25.39% (2,651,981) with the complete vaccination schedule.
In the same week as the confirmation of community transmission of the delta variant in Paraná, the state government began what can be called the “general liberated” phase, authorizing the return to classroom classes in public schools, with teachers only receiving a dose of the vaccine, in addition to other flexibilities, such as the authorization of events for 500 people. In Curitiba, the City Hall authorized the return of the public to soccer stadiums and kept the yellow flag, which indicates less risk than in the previous phases.
Source: BoF Paraná
Edition: Frédi Vasconcelos